Even if they find compromise in negotiations, both might be locked into a continuous fight in government. All three will remain broadly supportive of strong transatlantic partnership in rhetoric.
But a weakened CDU leader may also come under pressure from his own conservative wing after a poor election result to avoid making too many concessions to the Greens. Statedly its preferred choice, the FDP will have much overlap with the CDU and will face considerable political pressure not to walk away from the same scenario as in , especially in the later stages of coalition talks.
The view from Brussels and Washington : Brussels will likely see more of the same as in the Merkel years. Except on climate policies, the Greens are unlikely to push through major EU-level initiatives or reforms against the weight of two status-quo partners. Dynamics and likelihood : The mainstream democratic parties have a non-cooperation policy toward The Left at the federal level similar to the exclusion policy against the AfD on the right.
But so far, the SPD and the Greens have refused to explicitly rule out the R2G option this time around, likely as a means to keep the pressure on both the conservatives and the FDP. The latter have noticed and are trying to mobilize centrist voters and their own bases with the specter of government participation by the far left. But what might work for all four, based on different campaign purposes, seems a highly unlikely option for governing.
And even on economic policy, The Left hardly speaks the same language as the other two. Dynamics and likelihood : The Kenya option would require the CDU to accept a junior role under the Social Democrats and a minority role among a progressive majority, which might prove difficult after a major election defeat.
The CDU would most likely prefer to rejuvenate itself in opposition. Programmatically, the alliance could work among the three partners, but would mean more status-quo politics on major policy areas. But having been dragged into the current coalition with the CDU kicking and screaming after all other coalition talks failed, progressives in the SPD are highly unlikely to acquiesce to what would amount to Kenya-in-reverse. For the Social Democrats, such a coalition would mean an expanded grand coalition with a hefty center-right majority and two difficult partners instead of only one.
That difference has tightened in the latest pre-election polls. With Germany a major player in EU economic and fiscal policy, Green positions on linking trade deals more closely to social and environmental standards may also impact the European trade policy agenda.
If the Greens end up closer to 20 percent, rather than 15, they will have a stronger voice in any coalition scenario. The unity and discipline among adherents of both camps during the campaign is unusual. A weaker-than-expected result may embolden both to return to more open sparring, while a strong showing will empower the co-leaders and their ability to navigate conflicting internal demands.
The electoral system managed to do this in all elections from to A change in the constitution in makes it possible make changes in electoral law, that would guarantee equality beetween parties — since then, such reforms do not need a constitutional change as before. This change was made in order to make necessary corrections to the electoral system easier. All parties claim that they support equality between parties. However, Althingi has not corrected the unequality that has now occurred in four elections in a row.
When all votes had been counted on Sunday morning, it appeared that 33 women and 30 men had been elected to Althingi. This new record was instantly major news in the media all over the world. But the good news were not to last. Just after noon the same day, it was revealed that a recount in the Northwest constituency had changed this. The recount did not change the number of seats for the parties in the constituency, and it did not change the total number of seats for any party nationally.
What changed was the allocation of adjustment seats within parties. Three of those who left were women, replaced by men. In recent years, Iceland has been number one in most international rankings on gender equality generally. It would have been nice to be the first established democracy to elect a parliament with a majority of women. It is most likely that the current government will continue. The three party leaders have already started informal negotiations.
But there are other possibilities. SDA and the Pirates declared before the election that they were not willing to take part in any coalition including the IP.
A centre-left coalition would need four or five parties, including the PP. The PP is ideologically closer to the other centre-left parties, at least on many issues. In the campain, the PP emphasised for instance more spending on the welfare system, and increased taxation for the very rich. But in a system where two-party governments have been the norm and most three-party coalitions have broken up during the electoral term , many leaders think that four- or five-party coalitions may prove to be unstable.
In fact, only once has Iceland seen a four-party government, Co-operation within this four-party government was smooth — with no major disagreements between the parties. The other thee parties kept a narrow majority 32 seats out of 63 — but a new coalition of IP and SDP was formed instead.
Peter Bofinger recognises the compromises necessary for a three-party government but regrets the lack of vision to face a decade of huge challenges. In the wake of the elections to the new Bundestag , the social-democratic SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP have agreed surprisingly quickly to begin coalition negotiations, important key points having been agreed in an exploratory paper.
Is this glass half-full or half-empty? In favour of the positive reading is the obvious willingness of all parties quickly to create a government for Germany that is capable of acting. They were prepared to make compromises, which were certainly not easy. The SPD and the Greens buried their plans for higher income tax rates and a wealth tax. In return, the FDP abandoned its long-standing demand for tax relief for high earners and companies.
Thus, the parties agreed to remain within its framework. Whether this will actually lead to a paradigm shift can only be judged once the coalition agreement is available. Subscribe to our free newsletter and get the latest Social Europe content delivered straight to your inbox. Please check your inbox and click on the link in the confirmation email to complete your newsletter subscription. Another positive aspect is that there will be no pension cuts for pensioners in the coming legislative period and no increase in the statutory retirement age.
An interesting innovation envisaged is partial capital funding of the statutory pension insurance scheme—though how this is to be done has not yet been formulated. From a more sceptical perspective, such coalition compromises always run the risk of representing the lowest common denominator.
Reading the exploratory paper, striking is the lack of concrete missions, as Mariana Mazzucato would say —ambitious, large-scale projects which could achieve major breakthroughs in climate protection, digitalisation and innovation by the end of the decade. Here the SPD, which explicitly promoted a mission-oriented approach in its election manifesto, has evidently not been able to assert itself. It remains open, for example, whether there will be a higher price for carbon-dioxide emissions and how the social compensation then required could be achieved.
Likewise, there are no statements on a possible hydrogen strategy or on expansion paths for renewable energies. Another blind spot is industrial policy: the outgoing government successfully campaigned for battery-cell production in Germany but the FDP seems to have prevailed here with its laisser faire line.
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